Fed Chair Powell Signals It’s Time to Cut Interest Rates
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced on Friday (Aug 23) that the time has come for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates. Speaking at the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell expressed confidence that inflation is now on a sustainable path toward the U.S. central bank’s 2% target and highlighted the need to adjust policy accordingly.
“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell stated. He emphasized that the timing and pace of the rate cuts will depend on incoming economic data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
Powell’s remarks signal a shift in the Fed’s approach as he expressed growing confidence that inflation, which spiked to around 7% during the COVID-19 pandemic, is now under control. He also noted that the risks of rising inflation have diminished.
Meanwhile, Powell pointed to an “unmistakable” slowdown in the job market and an increase in the downside risks to employment. The recent rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% has been driven by slower hiring rather than a significant increase in layoffs, and Powell made it clear that the Fed will not tolerate further weakening of the labor market.
“We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell asserted. “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.”
With the Fed’s policy rate currently in the 5.25% – 5.50% range, Powell noted that there is “ample room” to reduce borrowing costs to support the labor market. His comments have fueled speculation that the Fed could begin its easing cycle with a half-percentage-point rate cut, with markets betting on further cuts in the months ahead.
Following Powell’s speech, U.S. stocks surged, with the S&P 500 approaching a record high. U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies.
Powell’s comments suggest that the Fed is close to declaring victory over the inflationary surge that began during the pandemic. The Fed had previously raised its benchmark policy rate from near-zero to the current level, the highest in 25 years, in response to rapidly rising prices.
While Powell acknowledged that the task of restoring price stability is not yet complete, he expressed optimism that the economy can return to 2% inflation while maintaining a strong labor market. He also hinted that the Fed’s updated economic projections, to be released at its meeting next month, will provide more clarity on the future direction of interest rates.
Powell’s speech at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park, a key event for central bankers and economists worldwide, marks a pivotal moment in the Fed’s monetary policy as it prepares to enter a new phase of rate cuts.
